The Mathematical Proof of the Inspiration of Scripture
In a debate between Karl Keating (Catholic lay apologist) and Peter Ruckman (Baptist preacher and KVJ Onlyist who passed away in 2016), Keating argued that the only way to know the Bible is inspired is because the Catholic Church gave it to us and has the authority to tell us that it is inspired.
Ruckman countered that we know the Bible is inspired because of mathematical probabilities. He said, “…the proof of Biblical inspiration rests on prophecy. It doesn’t rest on anything as obtuse as what anybody thinks about their religion. That is immaterial.” He then talked about the odds of 48 prophecies about one man all coming true.
Ruckman gave some specific numbers, and I thought he probably did not do the math for this himself, so after a quick google search I found that these numbers apparently came from a man named Peter Stoner. “Professor Emeritus of Science at Westmont College, Peter Stoner, has calculated the probability of one man fulfilling the major prophecies made concerning the Messiah…. Stoner used 48 prophecies (Idem, 109) (even though he could have used Edersheim's 456), and arrived at the extremely conservative estimate that the probability of 48 prophecies being fulfilled in one person is the incredible number [1 in] 10^157”. [http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/radio034.htm] Unfortunately, Professor Stoner's book, Science Speaks, has been out of print since 1976.
Later in the debate Ruckman quipped, “I’m not too bright. I’ve only read the Bible through about 106 times. I might have missed something.” However, despite Ruckman’s country preacher demeanor, he obviously had a lot of experience to draw on and knew his facts.
Keating was almost completely stumped by Ruckman’s argument. He even said, “This threw me for a loop” and that he had never heard this argument before. He tried to come up with a counter argument, but he was “winging it” and his response came across as unprepared and weak. He tried to say that even these astronomical odds did not prove 100% and did not hold for every book in the Bible. Ruckman countered that every book of the Bible contained some amount prophecy, and Keating seemed to have no response for this. Instead he changed the subject.
Now, my point in bring this up is not to endorse Peter Ruckman or to put down Karl Keating. I have a lot of respect for anybody who will participate in a public debate like this. But Ruckman's argument, borrowed from Professor Stoner, was perhaps the first time I ever heard a mathematical argument for the truth of the Bible.
Stoner's book is out of print and expensive to obtain these days, but fortunately his grandson, has made it available to the world in html format at http://sciencespeaks.dstoner.net/. The book doesn't just address prophecies about the messiah, but it also addresses Old Testament prophecies about 10 different ancient cities. Professor Stoner estimates the probability of each prophecy coming true and then he roles up a single estimate for the probability of the Bible getting all of these prophecies correct and his final number is 1 in 5.76 x 10^59.
"Some will say that the estimates given in some of these prophecies are too large and should be reduced. Other may say that some of the prophecies are related and should have smaller estimates. That may be true, so I would suggest that such a person go back over the prophecies and make his own estimates. They will be found to be still large enough to be conclusive. He may add to the consideration other prophecies and estimate their probability of fulfillment. Use, for example, such prophecies as those referring to the city of Sidon (Ezek. 28:20-23); Capernaum and Bethsaida (Luke 10:13,15); the highway between Egypt and Assyria (Isa. 19:23-25); changes in Egypt (Ezek. 29:12-15; 30:13). I am sure there are more than enough fulfilled prophecies to establish the probability number given above even when the estimates are taken from the most conservative critic.
Ruckman countered that we know the Bible is inspired because of mathematical probabilities. He said, “…the proof of Biblical inspiration rests on prophecy. It doesn’t rest on anything as obtuse as what anybody thinks about their religion. That is immaterial.” He then talked about the odds of 48 prophecies about one man all coming true.
Ruckman gave some specific numbers, and I thought he probably did not do the math for this himself, so after a quick google search I found that these numbers apparently came from a man named Peter Stoner. “Professor Emeritus of Science at Westmont College, Peter Stoner, has calculated the probability of one man fulfilling the major prophecies made concerning the Messiah…. Stoner used 48 prophecies (Idem, 109) (even though he could have used Edersheim's 456), and arrived at the extremely conservative estimate that the probability of 48 prophecies being fulfilled in one person is the incredible number [1 in] 10^157”. [http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/radio034.htm] Unfortunately, Professor Stoner's book, Science Speaks, has been out of print since 1976.
Later in the debate Ruckman quipped, “I’m not too bright. I’ve only read the Bible through about 106 times. I might have missed something.” However, despite Ruckman’s country preacher demeanor, he obviously had a lot of experience to draw on and knew his facts.
Keating was almost completely stumped by Ruckman’s argument. He even said, “This threw me for a loop” and that he had never heard this argument before. He tried to come up with a counter argument, but he was “winging it” and his response came across as unprepared and weak. He tried to say that even these astronomical odds did not prove 100% and did not hold for every book in the Bible. Ruckman countered that every book of the Bible contained some amount prophecy, and Keating seemed to have no response for this. Instead he changed the subject.
Now, my point in bring this up is not to endorse Peter Ruckman or to put down Karl Keating. I have a lot of respect for anybody who will participate in a public debate like this. But Ruckman's argument, borrowed from Professor Stoner, was perhaps the first time I ever heard a mathematical argument for the truth of the Bible.
Stoner's book is out of print and expensive to obtain these days, but fortunately his grandson, has made it available to the world in html format at http://sciencespeaks.dstoner.net/. The book doesn't just address prophecies about the messiah, but it also addresses Old Testament prophecies about 10 different ancient cities. Professor Stoner estimates the probability of each prophecy coming true and then he roles up a single estimate for the probability of the Bible getting all of these prophecies correct and his final number is 1 in 5.76 x 10^59.
"Some will say that the estimates given in some of these prophecies are too large and should be reduced. Other may say that some of the prophecies are related and should have smaller estimates. That may be true, so I would suggest that such a person go back over the prophecies and make his own estimates. They will be found to be still large enough to be conclusive. He may add to the consideration other prophecies and estimate their probability of fulfillment. Use, for example, such prophecies as those referring to the city of Sidon (Ezek. 28:20-23); Capernaum and Bethsaida (Luke 10:13,15); the highway between Egypt and Assyria (Isa. 19:23-25); changes in Egypt (Ezek. 29:12-15; 30:13). I am sure there are more than enough fulfilled prophecies to establish the probability number given above even when the estimates are taken from the most conservative critic.
"Others may say that these accounts in the Bible are not prophecies, but historical accounts written after the events happened. This is absurd, for all of these prophecies are found in the Old Testament, and every one dates its writing long before Christ. One of these prophecies was completely fulfilled before Christ. Two had small parts fulfilled before Christ, and the remaining parts after Christ. All other prophecies considered were completely fulfilled after Christ. If we were to strike out all estimates given for parts of prophecies fulfilled before Christ our probability number would still be so large that the strength of its argument could not be comprehended." [http://sciencespeaks.dstoner.net/Prophetic_Accuracy.html#c8l]
Stoner concluded that we can know with mathematical certainty that beyond a reasonable doubt the Bible is inspired by the Divine, because humans alone could not make such predictions with such astounding accuracy.
"Atheists allege, however, that there are examples of' 'prophecy' in writings other than the Bible, and so such a phenomenon no more proves the inspiration of the Scriptures than it does for these other works.... For example, Dan Barker, a former Pentecostal turned atheist, claims the prophecies of the Bible are no more remarkable than those of the French prognosticator Nostradamus. In attempting to evade the force of Ezekiel’s predictions concerning the destruction of Tyre (chapter 26), Barker declares: '[I]f Ezekiel is a true prophet, then so are Nostradamus and Jeanne Dixon.'" [https://www.christiancourier.com/articles/193-nostradamus-prophet-or-pretender]
However, if you know anything about the predictions of Nostradamus, you know that they are extremely cryptic and vague. You cannot make any sense of them until you decide after the fact that ah ha that's what Nostradamus meant. By contrast, the prophecies of the Bible are true predictions that would have made sense before the events took place. For example...
That's a pretty specific prophecy. There's nothing cryptic or obtuse about it. Ezekiel predicts the destruction of a specific city and even predicts who God will use to carry out His judgement. A few such predictions being right could just be luck, but there are way too many to not at least consider the possibility that there really is something supernatural going on.
I don't blame anyone for not wanting to take my word for it or Peter Ruckman's or Professor Stoner's, but the stakes are high. Read the Bible and research the history for yourself and then decide for yourself how likely is it that the Bible Prophets just lucked into getting their prophecies right. If you think it is not worth your time to do so then you only have yourself to blame if you are wrong.
Stoner concluded that we can know with mathematical certainty that beyond a reasonable doubt the Bible is inspired by the Divine, because humans alone could not make such predictions with such astounding accuracy.
"Atheists allege, however, that there are examples of' 'prophecy' in writings other than the Bible, and so such a phenomenon no more proves the inspiration of the Scriptures than it does for these other works.... For example, Dan Barker, a former Pentecostal turned atheist, claims the prophecies of the Bible are no more remarkable than those of the French prognosticator Nostradamus. In attempting to evade the force of Ezekiel’s predictions concerning the destruction of Tyre (chapter 26), Barker declares: '[I]f Ezekiel is a true prophet, then so are Nostradamus and Jeanne Dixon.'" [https://www.christiancourier.com/articles/193-nostradamus-prophet-or-pretender]
However, if you know anything about the predictions of Nostradamus, you know that they are extremely cryptic and vague. You cannot make any sense of them until you decide after the fact that ah ha that's what Nostradamus meant. By contrast, the prophecies of the Bible are true predictions that would have made sense before the events took place. For example...
Ezekiel 26:7 English Standard Version (ESV)
7 “For thus says the Lord God: Behold, I will bring against Tyre from the north Nebuchadnezzar[a] king of Babylon, king of kings, with horses and chariots, and with horsemen and a host of many soldiers.
That's a pretty specific prophecy. There's nothing cryptic or obtuse about it. Ezekiel predicts the destruction of a specific city and even predicts who God will use to carry out His judgement. A few such predictions being right could just be luck, but there are way too many to not at least consider the possibility that there really is something supernatural going on.
I don't blame anyone for not wanting to take my word for it or Peter Ruckman's or Professor Stoner's, but the stakes are high. Read the Bible and research the history for yourself and then decide for yourself how likely is it that the Bible Prophets just lucked into getting their prophecies right. If you think it is not worth your time to do so then you only have yourself to blame if you are wrong.
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